Fall Gold Cup/CFJ Shadden Series #1

UPDATE NO. 3 RELEASED 9/9 @ 1500 FINAL UPDATE

The Newport Harbor Yacht Club (“NHYC”) is continuing to actively watch and prepare for an unusual weather event that is predicted to affect racing this weekend.  We are still monitoring several weather factors that can change quickly and may affect racing either Saturday and/or Sunday. Hurricane Kay will affect Newport Beach in several ways including wind speed and direction, swell height and currents, precipitation, lightning and other factors.  We still do not expect to be hit directly by Hurricane Kay but we still have full exposure to the strongest part of the cyclone as she starts her westward oscillation with swell and wind waves as well as clouds that will produce rain and lightning.  

OUR CURRENT OUTLOOK FOLLOWS:

Weekend Racing Options include:

• Racing both days with race venue adjustment
• No Racing Saturday
• Racing only Sunday
• CFJ Racing inside Newport Harbor on Saturday and in the ocean on Sunday

Postponement or Abandonment of racing is possible Saturday if the weather and sea conditions prove highly unlikely that we should be sailing at all. At this time, we expect Sunday to be raced pursuant to the Schedule in the NOR.

The Saturday forecast has variable winds at roughly 9-11 knots, with predicted .16 inches of rain and mostly overcast with temps in the upper 70s and with wind waves of 3-4 feet.  Lightning is what we are also concerned with.

The Sunday forecast is dramatically different with a much more normal SSW – SW veering breeze building from 6 up to 10 knots.  Sea surfaces predicted are 2-3 foot wind waves but trending lower while the swell size is expected to be 2 feet with a 7 second period, still with a small chance of scattered lightning.  Sky cover of 40-50% is predicted.

Our near-shore CFJ sailing venue is just off 8th street on the peninsula where we are experiencing 73-degree ocean water with surf in the 4-5-foot range and fast inshore currents trending NW.  Because the near-shore racing venue is in 50 – 200 feet of water and wind direction will be highly variable, we are urging caution to all racing sailors and, if we were to put to sea, it is likely only if sustained winds are 12kts or less and swells running 3-4 feet max with a downwards trend.  The other consideration is precipitation and the probability of lightning.  

 As Tropical System Kay approaches from the south, Gale warnings are posted with Small Craft Advisory easterly winds in the Catalina Channel being observed. The tropical system remnants bring a 90% chance of showers and scattered chances of thunderstorms from Friday night through Sunday evening. 

Today’s 0929 N.W.S. Forecast for our NHYC near-shore venue on Saturday and Sunday is:

Saturday

SE wind around 10 kt becoming N in the morning. Showers, with thunderstorms also possible after 11am. Mixed swell...W 2 ft at 10 seconds and SSE 5 to 6 ft at 8 seconds. Wind waves 1 to 2 ft.

Saturday Night

SE wind 5 to 10 kt. A chance of showers. Mixed swell...W 1 ft and SSE 3 to 5 ft. Wind waves around 1 ft.

Sunday

SE wind 5 to 10 kt becoming SW in the afternoon. A slight chance of showers, then a chance of showers and thunderstorms after 11am. Mixed swell...W 1 ft and SSE 2 to 3 ft. Wind waves 1 ft or less.

Sunday Night

WSW wind 5 to 10 kt. A slight chance of showers before 11pm. Patchy fog after 11pm. Mixed swell...W 1 ft and S 2 ft. Wind waves 1 ft or less.

UPDATE NO. 2 RELEASED 9/9 @ 1000

The Newport Harbor Yacht Club (“NHYC”) continues to actively watch and prepare for the unusual weather event that is predicted to affect racing this weekend.  We are looking at several factors that can change quickly and would affect racing either Saturday and/or Sunday.

The current consideration is precipitation and the probability of lightning. Our current stance is for our CFJ fleet to race inside the harbor on Saturday with intent to get 1-3 races off. Sunday’s goal remains to be offshore on our Ocean venue. Our intent for our Sabot Fleets continues as a wait and watch the weather and make shoreside safety of our sailors decisions Saturday morning. 

Our current racing options continue to be:

• No Racing Saturday
• No Racing Saturday or Sunday
• Racing only Sunday
• CFJ Racing inside Newport Harbor on Saturday and in the ocean on Sunday
• Other variants.

NHYC will circulate one additional update concerning this weekend’s racing prospects.  The next RACE/WEATHER UPDATE (No.3) will be circulated at 1500 tomorrow morning (Friday 9/9), then again at 1500 tomorrow afternoon.  

Based on the forecast today, it is our hope Sunday is favorable to racing with a low likelihood of lightning and favorable wind and sea conditions. Saturday however remains ‘to be determined’ but our current intent is to race CFJ inside the bay with the goal of 1-3 races. 

UPDATE NO. 1 RELEASED 9/8 @ 1500

The Newport Harbor Yacht Club (“NHYC”) is actively watching and preparing for an unusual weather event that is predicted to affect racing this weekend.  We are looking at several factors that can change quickly and would affect racing either Saturday and/or Sunday.

Hurricane Kay will affect Newport Beach in several ways including wind speed and direction, swell height and currents, precipitation, lightning and many other factors.  While we do not expect to be hit directly by Hurricane Kay, the NE quarter tends to be the strongest quarter in a hurricane in the Northern Hemisphere.  When the expected turn away from the coastline near San Diego occurs on Friday Afternoon to Saturday morning, we will have full exposure to the strongest part of the cyclone.

Newport Beach is blessed with south facing beaches and surfers are gathering at the Wedge and at The Point, two surf breaks known for high waves during south swells generated by Hurricanes.  Our near-shore sailing venue is sandwiched between these two potentially massive breaks with a lot of northward water movement affecting the racing course just off 8th street on the peninsula. We are expecting surf in the 5-8 foot range which could lead to sets at the Wedge to be 12-18 feet, if lined up correctly.  Because the near-shore racing venue is in 50 – 200 feet of water and wind direction will be highly variable, we are urging caution to all racing sailors and, if we were to put to sea, it is likely only if sustained winds are less than 14 kts and if swells are running 3-5 feet max with a downwards trend.  This could occur on Saturday or Sunday.

The other consideration is precipitation and the probability of lightning.

 This storm stretches from San Diego to Cabo San Lucas and is almost 800nm in breadth, and that is today’s fix of the eye south of Pta. Eugenia, just east of Cedros Island.

As Tropical System Kay approaches from the south, there is a 70% chance for easterly small craft advisory level winds and waves of 4-6 feet over the area, with impacts to Catalina Island starting Friday. However, these winds could exceed Gale Force (with a better chance on Saturday), which would be capable of producing dangerous waves of 6-8 feet. The tropical system remnants bring a 70% chance of showers and 20% chance of thunderstorms from Friday night to Sunday evening, best chances of lightning on Saturday.

Today’s 0935 N.W.S. Forecast for our NHYC near-shore venue on Saturday and Sunday is:

Our current racing options include:

• No Racing Saturday
• No Racing Saturday or Sunday
• Racing only Sunday
• Racing inside Newport Harbor on Saturday and in the ocean on Sunday
• Other variants.

NHYC will circulate two additional updates concerning this weekend’s racing prospects.  The next RACE/WEATHER UPDATE (No.2) will be circulated at 1000 tomorrow morning (Friday 9/9), then again at 1500 tomorrow afternoon.  

Abandonment of racing is possible if the forecast for both days appears highly unlikely that we could sail, which decision will occur tomorrow at the 1500 Update No.3. This should allow traveling families to alter their lodging and other accommodations for the weekend.  Based on the forecast today, it is our hope that Sunday is favorable to racing with a low likelihood of lightning and favorable wind and sea conditions